LOCAL MARKET ANAYLSIS (QUARTER ONE 2008) 06/01/2009 15:51:00 Cowley Groves remained confident in our local property market during this period, visualized by our capital expenditure on our new image and new for sale boards. However, there was no doubt that things were getting much worse elsewhere in the United States and the United Kingdom. Bank’s liquidity was the problem which in turn would make mortgages in the UK much harder to get particularly at the first time buyer level. This in turn was bound to have some sort of eventual knock on effect locally but only to the extent of reducing the number of buyers from the U.K and hopefully only at the lower end of the market. When monitoring local historic sales data we find that 82% of property sold on the Isle of Man was to locals so, in theory, although our UK influx of residents is very important, we do not rely on it totally. The forecast at that time was for our economy to grow this year by around 8% (Source :Isle of Man Government Treasury March 2008) whilst the UK’s was forecast to be less than 2%. January and February of this quarter did see a healthy 39% increase in new instructions when compared with the same period in 2007. This was welcomed at the time as the local market had struggled for stock over the last three years which contributed to us being firmly locked into a sellers market. Interestingly, even after this substantial improvement in new listings we still found ourselves offering 28% fewer properties than the equivalent period of 2007. Negotiated sales on the other hand were slightly down during this quarter, which was expected and partly due to March 2007 being the best month of the whole of 2007 and 2008 for negotiated sales. This resulted in a slight increase in the listing to sales ratio which also helped struggling stock levels at the time to recover further. This extra stock ensured that we had some nice properties on offer as we approached the historically buoyant spring months of 2008. Some excellent high value homes were also sold by our company during this period including an Excellent Modern Detached property in upper Douglas at over 2 million pounds and a Period Detached Home in Glen Vine sold for around 1.2 million pounds, both I hasten to add to local purchasers. The healthy increase in new instructions at the beginning of the year resulted in some excellent negotiated sales during March and a lot of this new stock was snapped up by the increasing number of cash purchasers at the time that had exhausted the current local stock of properties in their price range and were only awaiting suitable new listings. March also saw a substantial increase in the number of registered buyers on our website as well as a healthy 26500 visitors who looked at 43000 properties. This quarter also had a healthy rental market which again was short of stock, therefore those wishing to invest in the local property market had waiting tenants, which is obviously crucial to their long term investment plans. In addition, in many cases it was almost as cheap to pay a mortgage to buy as it was to pay a monthly rental on the equivalent property. Therefore many tenants were also going down the purchase road which in turn fuelled negotiated sales. The global situation during this period had no measurable effect on our local market at all. Between January 1st and the end of April 2008 there was absolutely no reduction in local activity from a sales or new listing point of view, as the first quarter of 2008 was pretty much on a par for negotiated sales with quarter one of 2007, which itself was an excellent period for negotiated sales. The Average house price for Isle of Man property during quarter one 2008 was £276,354 UK MARKET ANALYSIS (QUARTER ONE 2008) Unlike our market the UK was already slowing rapidly by this time with a quarterly change of -1.7% and a slowdown in annual house price growth across all UK regions. The first quarter of 2008 was down 6.9% compared to the end of 2007. (Source: www.nationwide.co.uk) The financial market events since August added to the slowdown by reducing confidence amongst buyers. Every region throughout the UK was already showing negative quarterly percentage changes with the West Midlands and the South West of England the worst at -2.5%. Northern Ireland was also down a staggering 10% on the latter half of 2007. (Source: Nationwide.co.uk) A reduction in bank interest rates by a quarter percentage to 5.25% was enthusiastically welcomed by agents and the NAEA who also reported a general lack of confidence in the market. The NAEA also reported in a press release on 7th February 2008 that although agents were not enjoying the heady price rises of recent years the market was holding its own for the time being. The UK and Northern Ireland were clearly experiencing market difficulties during quarter one that the Isle of Man wasn’t. The average house price for UK property during quarter one 2008 was £179,363 (Source: Nationwide house price index March 2008) LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS (QUARTER TWO 2008) With the National doom and gloom really starting to take hold of the UK market, locally we were still experiencing a surprisingly healthy market during this period. Negotiated sales were excellent and only really restricted from improving further by the lack of stock at most price levels which in turn sustained the sellers market and kept values on the upturn. Thankfully there were still a few main differences between our market and the U.K. Market at that time. 1. We were still very short of stock at certain price ranges despite an upturn in new listings this year although we were not short of purchasers. 2. The major lenders appeared to have confidence locally in our market as our mortgage market had hardly been affected during quarter two by the global situation, with up to 5 times salary loans still available along with some very competitive tracker rates and 100% loans still being offered. Some lenders were changing their lending criteria though at this time and in some instances increasing arrangement fees and fixed rate fees. 3.. We still had consumer confidence, which was sadly lacking in the U.K. where potential purchasers who were lucky enough to have sold and were therefore in a position to purchase seemed to be adopting a “wait and see” attitude. 4. Huge historic local market growth of 170% in the last 10 years and 50% in the last 5 years had resulted in massive property equity for local vendors which meant we were not experiencing any negative equity problems, unlike the UK. The local residential sales market during this quarter finished up with some excellent sales figures and, although down slightly at the half yearly period compared to 2007, remained buoyant and stable. Having said that, the first half of June did seem to have a slightly quieter, less urgent feel about it than May. But at that time it was too soon to tell whether or not this was the start of a slight market downturn or just a normal market blip that we tend to experience every year. Isle of Man property values were still increasing during this quarter by between 5 and 7 percent. The average house price for Isle of Man property during quarter two was £302,164. UK MARKET ANALYSIS (QUARTER TWO 2008) The UK market slowdown continued and gathered pace during this quarter. House prices were lower than a year earlier in twelve out of thirteen regions. House prices were 4% down annually and the UK quarterly change was 3.4% down on quarter one 2008. (Source: www.nationwide.co.uk) The market was being exposed to the general tightening of credit conditions and the squeeze on incomes from higher inflation. Northern Ireland continued to show by far the steepest correction in house prices across the UK with prices in the province down by 18.6% year on year. (Source: www.nationwide.co.uk) The RICS in their March 2008 report quoted that house price falls increased to a historical low in March. Both sales expectations and price expectations fell. The net balance of surveyors expecting prices to rise was at an all time low of -73% (Source: www.rics.org) Sentiment was at a very low ebb and was expected to remain depressed as the economy suffered from this unique liquidity blight and the slowdown during the first half of the year was attributable to a lack of available finance. The average house price for UK property during quarter two 2008 was £174,514 (Source: Nationwide house price index March 2008) LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS (QUARTER THREE 2008) I can confirm that for the first time during 2008 the third quarter was down in terms of sales on the same period of 2007. Not by any means significantly but down nevertheless. This confirmed that whilst we were not suffering anything like the slowdown of the UK, our property market (and our general economy) was obviously not totally immune to what is happening elsewhere and was bound to be affected to a certain extent eventually. New listings during this quarter were extremely healthy and were up about 26% on the third quarter of 2007. The downturn in sales during this quarter coupled with this further increase in new listings resulted in stock levels rising considerably and the availability of some really nice properties. This was starting to erode the supply and demand ratio and thus meant purchasers had a lot more choice for the first time this year although, as always, well presented, competitively priced homes attracted early interest which still sometimes resulted in sales at close to asking prices within a few days of marketing. At the top end of the market vendors seemed to be showing confidence in our ability to deliver sales which also boosted our stock at this level. Consequently, even though we secured a number of sales at this level during recent months, we still found ourselves with over 25 properties for sale at over £1million as well as a few high value homes which we were offering quietly without full details and marketing. One positive boost to the local market during this quarter came from the uncertainty of the banking industry. The Isle of Man is not short of wealthy investors and this resulted in numerous sales to investors who obviously felt that their money was more secure in bricks and mortar in the long term. A healthy rental market combined with a lack of rental stock still makes this a very attractive proposition for anyone with cash to invest. The economic outlook during quarter three according to the UK media continued to be grim for the global economy as a whole let alone the UK property market. Our local economy on the other hand was still flourishing though, according to the Isle of Man Government Treasury division. In their news release on 18th September 2008 the economic affairs division reported a growth in economy for the 24th consecutive year, with a rise in the value of goods and services produced (or gross domestic product) of 11.2% over the previous year. Key points in the report demonstrated not just the overall strength of the economy but also the diversity of the sources of growth i.e: • Continued expansion of the manufacturing sector (by over 3% in real terms.) • Over 10% real growth in the non banking finance sector. • The rapid expansion (over 20% in real terms) of the information and communication technology (including e- business) sector. • Increased income throughout professional and company services sectors. • A good year for the visitor accommodation sector buoyed by advanced takings for the centenary TT races. Isle of Man Treasury Minister Allan Bell welcomed the figures as confirmation that the economy has been strengthening over the last few years but did warn that it would be unrealistic to expect such a growth to continue. Things were definitely a little quieter in local estate agency during this third quarter although the market remained surprisingly buoyant compared to elsewhere in terms of sales, with no shortage of appointments being made for viewings and valuations and still some surprisingly healthy interest at the top end of the market. Having said that, clients seemed a lot more aware of the tragic global situation and many were already worried about how it may affect us which is understandable due to all the negative press at the time. The average house price for Isle of Man property during quarter three was £325,133. UK MARKET ANALYSIS (QUARTER THREE 2008) The UK property market continued to struggle during this quarter. Access to mortgage products were severely restricted and the levels of transactions plunged with prices falling in every price index one cared to look at. Transactions fell by 40% compared to last year and prices slipped by around 5% (Source: www.rics.org). The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) called on the Government to use its pre budget report to help thousands of young people currently priced out of the housing market. With no evidence at the time that lenders were prepared to increase lending, the NAEA expected the scale of the market downturn to accelerate in 2009. In a research report commissioned by the National Federation of Property Professionals (NFOPP) for the NAEA it was felt that the UK housing market was without precedent with no way of knowing how far the market would fall unless something was done quickly. The scale of the reduction of mortgage credit was so great that few were able to buy. The NFOPP report argued that the whole of the housing market required kick starting with the need for : * Substantial cuts in interest rates which would improve affordability and stem repossessions. * Strong new measures to increase the volume of mortgage lending substantially. * Temporary government guarantees for the top slice of mortgages both for first time buyers and others. * Further, more extensive, temporary action on Stamp Duty. The Halifax in their third quarter report 2008 reported a quarterly change of -5.25 (Q3 2008 on Q2 2008) along with an annual change of -12.4% (Q3 2008 on Q3 2007). All regions had historically recorded at least a doubling in house prices over the past decade varying from a high of 177% in Northern Ireland to a low of 120% in Scotland. Prices during the third quarter of 2008 were lower than a year ago in all regions with Northern Ireland again being the worst hit at -23% (Source: Halifax house price index September 2008). The Nationwide also reported an annual change in house prices of -12.4% with a monthly change of -1.7%. There has certainly been some astonishing and unpredictable developments in the housing and financial markets since the start of the credit crunch approximately a year ago in September 2007 when house prices were rising at an annual rate of 9%. In September 2007 almost 40% of first time buyers were borrowing over 90% and the bank rate was 5.75%. The situation during September 2008 was completely different. UK house prices were falling rapidly and activity had contracted sharply, fewer than 20% of first time buyers were borrowing above 90% and the bank rate had fallen to 5% and was expected to fall to 3.5% by the end of 2009. (Source: www. nationwide.co.uk). The average house price for UK property during quarter three 2008 was £175,143 (Source: Halifax house price index September 2008) LOCAL MARKET ANAYLSIS (QUARTER FOUR 2008) As the worldwide doom and gloom continued, local agents were clearly going to have a quieter last quarter to 2008 compared to quarter four 2007. Having said that, which business wasn’t ? October and November were not without their highs though as there was a marked increase in new listings and still some healthy sales achieved at the top end of the market to both local and UK buyers. The rental market was also very buoyant with an increase in stock which was quickly snapped up by willing tenants. Thankfully we still had a healthy database of cash buyers during this quarter and these cash buyers now had some healthy choice due to the reduction in sales and increase in new listings. The UK situation unfortunately resulted in some of these cash buyers putting forward some very cheeky offers which were obviously refused as thankfully nobody locally is in a situation where they have negative equity problems and have to sell rapidly. Pricing and presentation was the key to selling in this quarter and well priced well presented new listings could still sell quickly. Quite simply, a property in today’s market has to be more attractively priced than others to sell. We also introduced our part exchange register during this quarter which has grown rapidly throughout our three branches and now features on our website. I am pleased to say that we have already negotiated house swaps between local vendors and this option definitely make a lot of sense in this market which now has plenty of willing movers. Icelandic banking problems lead to the collapse of Kaupthing Singer and Freelander during this period which was a blow to the local economy along with the subsequent closing of the local branch of Woolworths. These two closures were obviously going to add to local unemployment figures, which, unlike the UK, still remained incredibly low with November seeing a fall in registered unemployment of 26 from 1.6% to 1,5% which means we still have only 641 registered unemployed residents. December is always a fickle month for obvious reasons although this year it did seem to be even quieter than other Decembers and almost as if the Christmas slowdown happened earlier. This is perhaps understandable in the present climate and it usually lasts up until the second week in January when new listings and viewings improve as we head towards the historically buoyant Spring months. At least we can take comfort in the fact that, although we are not immune to what’s happening in the rest of the world, our little Island is obviously insulated somewhat from the full force of the Global situation. So far anyway! The average house price for Isle of Man property during quarter four 2008 was £297,567 UK MARKET ANALYSIS (QUARTER FOUR 2008) The Nationwide in their November press release reported that house price falls had moderated significantly as prices fell by just 0.4% in the month compared with 1.3% in October. This brought the annual rate of house falls to 13.9%, down from 14.6% last month but in spite of this moderation the economy was in recession and a swift recovery of the UK housing market was unlikely. Unlike the Isle of Man, the UK Labour market is weak which will inevitably hinder market demand particularly as UK property remains expensive relative to earnings. Although this moderation in falling prices is good news and a step in the right direction house prices in the UK are still falling so there is little incentive for new borrowers to hurry into the market particularly as some vendors negative equity problems continue to worsen therefore the chances of a bargain buy increases. Contrary to the Nationwide’s report the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) reported that house prices plummeted during November. There were glimmers of hope though as for the third month in a row the percentage of first time buyers entering the housing market increased. The NAEA also reported that the average semi detached property fell from £199,905 in October to £192,042 in November and the average detached property fell from £291,592 to £287,922 over the same period. However they did feel that these figures were definitely not as bad as expected and also predicted that agents were in for a more prosperous 2009 as the market was still waiting to feel the impact of the recent rate cuts. Things may well be levelling out then as far as the UK market is concerned after a very difficult twelve months for UK agents. It is also quite incredible what a difference a thirty mile stretch of water can make to our profession, as prices rapidly dived in all regions of England Ireland and Wales during 2008 our local properties were still increasing in value, albeit at a much slower rate than last year. I will settle for that! The average house price for UK property during quarter four 2008 was approx £168,000 (Source: Halifax house price index December 2008) Graham Wilson Director   Third Quarter Property Market Report 2008 07/10/2008 15:00:00 We have always been factual with our property market reports and have used genuine historic data and like for like comparables with previous years to give us a clear indication of market trends. This report is going be no different then and despite the temptation to talk the market up I can confirm that for the first time this year the third quarter of 2008 is down in terms of sales on the same period of 2007. Not by any means significantly but down nevertheless. As previously reported we are lucky in the Isle of Man as over 80% of purchasers are local so we don’t rely that much on UK purchasers. Having said that we are obviously not immune to what is happening elsewhere and are bound to be affected eventually. New listings during this quarter have been extremely healthy and are up about 26% on the third quarter of 2007. This has resulted in stock levels rising and the availability of some really nice properties. As always, well presented, competitively priced homes attract early interest which can still sometimes result in sales at close to asking prices within a few days of marketing. At the top end of the market vendors are showing confidence in our ability to deliver sales which has boosted out our stock at this level. Consequently, even though we have secured a number of sales at this level during recent months, we still have over 25 properties for sale at over £1million as well as a few high value homes which we are offering quietly without full details and marketing. One positive boost to the local market has come from the recent uncertainty of the banking industry. This has resulted in numerous sales to investors who obviously feel that their money is more secure in bricks and mortar in the long term. A very healthy rental market at present combined with a lack of rental stock makes this a very attractive proposition for anyone with cash to invest. As we are all aware, the outlook according to the media appears grim for the global economy as a whole let alone the UK property market. Nationally the members of the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) reported that the housing market was clearly faltering under the strain of the government’s indecision over stamp duty combined with the usual holiday slow down and the current overcast economy. Members also reported a slight decrease in the number of houses available, sales agreed, percentage of first time buyers and an improvement in the difference between asking prices and sale prices. HBOS plc reported an annual change in house prices of -10.9% with an average house price of £174,178 and a monthly change in August of -1.8%. Quite a drop when you consider that our market is still increasing, albeit slowly. In terms of our local economy, in a news release by the Treasury on 18th September 2008 (relating to 2006/07) the Treasury’s economic affairs division reports a growth in economy for the 24th consecutive year, with a rise in the value of goods and services produced (or gross domestic product) of 11.2% over the previous year. Key points in the report demonstrate not just the overall strength of the economy but also the diversity of the sources of growth i.e: • Continued expansion of the manufacturing sector (by over 3% in real terms.) • Over 10% real growth in the non banking finance sector. • The rapid expansion (over 20% in real terms) of the information and communication technology (including e- business) sector. • Increased income throughout professional and company services sectors. • A good year for the visitor accommodation sector buoyed by advanced takings for the centenary TT. Treasury Minister Allan Bell welcomed the figures as confirmation that the economy has been strengthening over the last few years but did warm that it would be unrealistic to expect such a growth of to continue. To sum up then, whilst things are definitely quieter than they were, the market remains quite buoyant with, I am pleased to say, no shortage of activity and appointments being made for both viewings and valuations. Locally I believe this is a good sign as all the recent media doom and gloom is bound to have an effect on how we feel, and whilst the temptation could be to batten down the hatches, adopt a wait and see attitude and stay put, thankfully, at the present time anyway, there are no major shortages of potential sellers and purchasers with Saturdays still filling up quickly with viewings. Yes in terms of negotiated sales we are down on the same period for 2007, but bear in mind quarter three of 2007 was a phenomenal quarter for negotiated sales. It will be interesting to see whether this pattern continues and what the final quarter of this year brings in terms of local activity in the lead up to Christmas. We will obviously continue to monitor this closely with everything crossed. Graham Wilson Cowley Groves & Co LTD   Cowley Groves Property Report August 2008 02/09/2008 10:59:00 As the global situation continues to worsen the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) reported in their 12th August report that the market as a whole shows some tentative signs in housing transactions, it is likely to start to stabilise over the months ahead and that nationally there may be some marginal improvement in the near future. In addition the NAEA are calling on the Bank of England to reduce interest rates or at least to maintain them in this current climate. The Association would also like the government to introduce a stamp duty holiday to help ease the wars of consumers temporarily. Locally, it’s so far so good for our own market with new listings in July and August substantially up on 2008 and whilst negotiated sales are down on the same months of 2008 it is not by a significant amount. We are very lucky on the Isle of Man and whilst we could survive on our own local market without the influx of UK and overseas residents, it would obviously result in a reduction in sales and these sales are likely to be at the higher end of the market. We are obviously not totally immune from the worldwide situation and if things do worsen it is inevitable that we are going to be effected to a certain extent. The question is when and how much? In the meantime however its very much business as usual locally, confirmed, I am pleased to say with over 18 viewings last Saturday alone which subsequently resulted in 3 successfully negotiated sales. It will be interesting to see if this situation continues through to the end of the year.   Cowley Groves 2nd Quarter Property Market Report 2008 23/06/2008 12:13:00 We are very fortunate to live on the Isle of Man for numerous reasons that I am sure we are fully aware of but one reason that may not immediately spring to mind is the difference a 16 mile stretch of water can make to property market conditions. The Nationwide Building Society in their end of May report quote a further fall in house prices of 2.5% during the month and state that although prices are 4.4% lower than this time last year they remain 5.0% higher than 2 years ago. Problems in credit markets have clearly been the trigger for changing fortunes in the housing market and stronger than expected inflation appears to have shattered hopes of an early cut in the bank rate in June. The Bank of England also report an 11% monthly drop in house purchase approvals during March to reach a seasonally adjusted 64,000, the lowest since records began in 1993. All of this National doom obviously makes you wonder about the buoyancy of our own market which Cowley Groves monitor closely on a monthly basis comparing it with last year which was also an excellent year for negotiated sales and only really restricted from improving further by the acute lack of stock at most price levels which in turn keeps values on the up turn. Thankfully there are also a few main differences between our market and the U.K. Market at the present time. .. 1. We are still very short of stock at certain prices ranges despite an upturn in new listings this year although we are not short of purchasers. 2. Our local market is made up of about 87% local sales so doesn’t totally rely on an influx of U.K. residents. 3. The major lenders appear to have confidence locally in our market as our mortgage market has so far hardly been affected by the global situation with up to 5 times salary loans still available along with some very competitive tracker rates still being offered. 4. We have consumer confidence, which is sadly lacking in the U.K. where potential purchasers who are lucky enough to have sold and are therefore in a position to purchase seem to be adopting a “wait and see” attitude. 5. Huge historic market growth has resulted in massive property equity for local vendors which means we are not experiencing any negative equity problems, unlike the UK. Whilst we are obviously not totally immune from what is happening elsewhere, so far, I am pleased to say that the local residential sales market, although down slightly at the half yearly period compared to 2007 remains buoyant and stable. Having said that, the first half of June did seem to have a slightly quieter, less urgent feel about it than May. It is obviously too soon to tell whether or not this is the start of a slight down turn or just a normal market blip that we tend to experience every year…….watch this space. Cowley Groves   Global Credit Crisis is our property market Affected? 19/05/2008 12:15:00 As the global and national credit crisis situation continues to worsen I felt it would be a good time to reflect on our local property market during this period. Thankfully, I am pleased to report that between January 1st and the end of April 2008 there has been absolutely no reduction in local activity either from a sales or a new listings point of view. The first quarter of 2008 finished up virtually on a par with the same period of 2007 which was also an excellent year for residential sales. We are very lucky here on the Isle of Man and whilst we are obviously not immune to what is happening elsewhere we do tend to be cocooned in our own little local market to a certain extent. Of course if the global situation gets much worse it is inevitable that there will be some effect on the local market. A depressed UK market will obviously mean that if UK buyers wanting to relocate to the Isle of Man are unable to sell they are unlikely to relocate and purchase here. However, due to the fact that over 80% of our market is made up of locals as opposed to purchasers from UK and overseas this effect, in my opinion, is likely to be minimal by comparison. Locally, mortgages are still obtainable and although some lenders are changing their lending criteria and in some instances increasing arrangement fees and fixed rate fees, 100% loans can still be provided. Whilst first time buyers are obviously crucial to a healthy market again, perhaps due to the government assistance scheme and affordable housing, the first time buyer amounts to a very small percentage of estate agency sales. Hence March’s average house price of £297,000 which is £100,000 above the UK national average. UK agencies are reporting a reduction in the number of buyers on their books coupled with an increase in houses offered for sale as well as a reduction in investors and also an increase in the sale of investment property due to a slow down in the rental market. Locally, we have no reduction in the number of buyers on our books proven by a bumper March with our website not only being up on the number of registered buyers but also receiving a healthy 26,500 visitors who have viewed 43,000 properties throughout the month. We also still have stock shortages in certain areas and overall we are currently offering 30% fewer properties for sale than the same period of 2007. Thankfully, we also have a healthy rental market which again is short of stock therefore investors have tenants, which is obviously crucial to their long term investment plans. In addition, in many cases it is almost as cheap to pay a mortgage to buy as it is to pay a monthly rental on the equivalent property. Therefore many tenants are going down the purchase road. Present local property owners have enjoyed massive growth in the property market with rises in property values in excess of 170% over the last ten years and in excess of 50% in the last five years. Consequently, even if property values do fall (which is highly unlikely in the short term) today’s local property owner is unlikely to be affected by negative equity particularly as we also have falling interest rates. The cost of living here is obviously rising and utility bills have soared but interest rates are still low so as long as our employment situation doesn’t change drastically and we have not re-mortgaged ourselves to the limit our monthly mortgage payments should be as affordable now as they were when they started. As far as the UK market is concerned the Halifax’s April report does quote a 2.5% reduction in house prices in March which has obviously been swooped on by the media but what is also clear from the report is that there are vast regional differences and out of 12 UK regions reported on, 5 were showing decreases in property prices which means 7 were not. In greater London, prices increased by 1.6%, East Anglia increased by 1.4% and East Midlands increased by 2.2%. Of course there is a slow down of the UK property market but maybe the situation is not as drastic as we are being led to believe and any falls should be taken in context with the significant rises over recent years as above. UK mortgages are obviously much tighter now and whilst the poor old first time buyer should be delighted that property prices in some UK regions are falling, because this is partly due to mortgage cut backs, today’s first time buyer may now have to find a larger deposit to get onto the property ladder. Also, in a rising market first time purchasers obviously want to get onto the ladder as quickly as possible where as in a falling market such as some regions of the UK the temptation is to wait until prices are even lower. Locally, for the time being anyway, our market remains strong, and due to stock shortages it’s a sellers market in many price ranges. Long term property will always be an excellent investment with today’s vendor having enough equity in their homes to hopefully absorb any future peaks and troughs. We will continue to monitor the local market monthly and report on it quarterly as always therefore, it will be interesting to see what affect the UK housing market has on us throughout the remainder of the year (if any). Graham Wilson Cowley Groves   FIRST QUARTERLY PROPERTY MARKET REPORT 2008 19/05/2008 12:13:00 Whilst we remain confident in our local property market, visualised by our capital expenditure on our new image there is no doubt that things were getting much worse elsewhere in the United States and the United Kingdom. Banks and liquidity is the problem which in turn will make mortgages in the UK much harder to get particularly at the first time buyer level. This in turn is bound to have a knock on effect locally but only to the extent of reducing the number of buyers from the U.K and only at the lower end of the market. The forecast is for our economy to grow this year by around 8% while the UK’s is forecast to be less than 2%. January and February this year did see a healthy 39% increase in new instructions when compared with the same period in 2007. Negotiated sales on the other hand were slightly down during this period resulting in a further increase in the listing to sales ratio which also helps stock levels to recover further. This should ensure that we have some nice properties on offer as we approach the historically buoyant spring months of 2008. Exchanged sales during this period tend to follow a similar pattern every year with January being an excellent month as the negotiated sales from the back end of last year exchange contracts. Some excellent high value homes were also sold during this period including an Excellent Modern Detached property in upper Douglas at over 2 million pounds and a Period Detached Home in Glen Vine sold for around 1 million pounds. The healthy increase in new instructions at the beginning of the year resulted in some excellent negotiated sales during March and a lot of this new stock was snapped up by the increasing number of cash purchasers that have exhausted the current stock and await suitable new listings. It would be interesting to see just what an impact the global situation will have on our local market but I am pleased to report that as far as the first quarter is concerned anyway 2008 has been pretty much on a par with 2007 which itself was an excellent period. Graham Wilson Cowley Groves & Company Limited.   Cowley Groves Annual Property Report 2007 19/12/2007 09:18:00 Nationally the property market seems to be cooling of somewhat with the Nationwide building society in their November report quoting a fall in house prices by 0.8% during the month, bringing the annual rate of increase to 6.9%. They also feel that the market remains uncertain and although underlying fundamentals are continuing to be supportive, the housing market drivers are weakening. They blame poor affordability, weaker house price growth expectations and the effect of earlier increases in interest rates for affecting demand in the market. The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) follow a similar pattern and their November report headed “Pre Christmas Slow-down Comes Early for U.K. Housing Market” reveals a slow October as the number of buyers on agents books took a tumble indicating a considerable cooling down in the U.K. housing market. The NAEA also quoted a reduction in the number of buyers on agent’s books, a slight reduction in the number of properties on agent’s books, a lower number of sales achieved per agent in October and a widening of the difference between asking price and sales price. There was however an increase in first time buyers in October from 8.8% to 9.2% of the overall U.K. market as calmer prices renewed enthusiasm in this bracket. So what about our own property market? I am pleased to say that The Bank of England has finally reduced interest rates to 5.5% which is the first time rates have been dropped since August 2005 and it is likely that we will see further reductions during the first half of next year. Whilst we are obviously affected by the U.K. market to some extent we do seem however, to be cocooned in our own little local market so the effects of what is happening elsewhere can be minimal by comparison. Locally the market remains pretty stable and 2007 finished up (all be it slightly) on 2006 which was in itself a good year for the local housing market. Having said that, it’s a different market to last year with substantially fewer sellers, therefore less stock available and increased competition amongst buyers. This has resulted in some new listings selling before we have had time to knock the board in the ground as many cash purchasers have quickly exhausted the current limited stock and therefore wait for fresh properties to come to the market place. I stress however that this is due to there being too few properties as opposed to too many buyers and we are in no way experiencing a market boom as this years market did seem to have a less urgent feel about it. As previously reported, 2007 started back with a bang and we experienced not only a healthy 9% increase in exchange sales over January 2006 but also an impressive 11% increase on negotiated sales during February. March on the other hand was unusually the quietest month of the first quarter and finished up pretty much on a par with March 2006. The stock shortages we are experiencing today started at the beginning of the year with the first quarter of 2007 down on new listings compared to the first quarter of 2006. With 8% more properties sold than listed during this period stock shortages were inevitable. The second quarter of the year saw these stock shortages continue to worsen with new listings a staggering 24% down on the same period of 2006 which resulted in 39% fewer properties on our books. Some healthy high value sales negotiated in May helped the sales figures during this period reach a 4% increase over 2006. Consequently, towards the end of June we found ourselves in the frustrating position of having a healthy database of purchasers but very few properties to offer them. July on the other hand thankfully brought an abundance of walk through valuations to start the third quarter with many vendors now considering selling after presumably some healthy short term rental income during this years centenary TT festival. These valuations were slow to make their way onto our books though and therefore July was substantially down on July 2006 for listings, August was similar to August 2006 and September was thankfully 11% up on last year. Sales during this third quarter continued to be good again helped along by some healthy high value sales during September making it the best month of this period. The continuing scarcity of new listings coupled with a slight increase in sales resulted in us being firmly being locked into a sellers market by the end of the third quarter of this year. The stock situation during the last three months of the year improved somewhat with new listings up thankfully by 29% on 2006. Sales and the market in general was unusually quiet in October which resulted in October 2007 being substantially down on October 2006 which was a blistering month for negotiated sales. Sales in November 2007 were only slightly up on 2006 and December was, as we have come to expect, a quiet month in general for sales. This turnaround in the new listing to sales ratio has meant that we enter January with some nice stock levels to start the new year. In terms of property value increases 2007 saw a rise of around 7% on average with the average house price for negotiated sales fluctuating considerably throughout the year with June being the highest at £391000 and November being the lowest at £246000. It is difficult as always to predict next years property values as a lot will depend on available stock, interest rates and consumer confidence but I would suggest that little will change with regard to the scarcity of resale homes and with fewer new build houses in the pipeline competition could be fierce therefore we could see double figure rises again by the end of 2008. It will also be interesting to see just what an impact the expected U.K. property market slow down has on our local market during 2008 and what difference lower interest rates will make.   Cowley Groves Third quarter property market report September 2007 01/11/2007 09:15:00 There is no question that our Islands economy continues to prosper with an abundance of new residents still being tempted to our shores by not only our governments generous incentive schemes for taxation and new businesses but also for our enviable Island lifestyle. Our capital certainly has a very prosperous feel to it with the promenade now looking good and benefiting from numerous purpose built apartment blocks in keeping with the original character. Our modern marina facilities and lock gate system has attracted some Mediterranean style fly bridge cruisers and large yachts and this area will be further improved on completion of the superb North quay development. It is not surprising therefore that our property market has also enjoyed huge growth over the last ten years and despite increases in mortgages rates and rises in energy prices today’s property owners generally have substantial equity in their own homes. Many of these local vendors are choosing to release this equity and purchase additional homes abroad or locally for investment. This obviously adds to our current stock shortage situation but in turn helps to fuel the rental market which is also experiencing substantial shortages of suitable property to let. You only have to look at agents window displays and websites to realise that there is nowhere near the choice available compared to last year. This is resulting in increased competition between buyers and in many cases multiple viewings on new listings within hours of marketing along with sometimes more than one full price cash offer on the same property. Having said that thankfully there has been an abundance of walk through valuations carried out since the end of TT week with many vendors of empty properties now considering selling having enjoyed some healthy rental income during this years festival. These valuations have already started to make there way into our new listing books and although July was a worrying 47% down on July 2006 for new listings, August was pretty much on a par with last year whilst September was 11% up on September 2006. Sales on the other hand have been extremely plentiful over the last few months and again, as far as the third quarter is concerned, up on the same period last year with September again being a good month with 29% more sales negotiated than in September 2006. Whilst this is excellent for business and the buoyancy of the local property market, it is obviously making it more difficult to replenish our database of all important stock. Therefore, for the time being anyway we do seem to be firmly locked into a sellers market in certain price ranges. Whilst selling in greater numbers and at higher values than last year is great in the short term, there does need to be a healthy stream of stock to sustain these sales and maintain a healthy market. Property values have risen by between 4% and 6% this year which is slightly less than The Nationwide’s national prediction of between 5% and 8% and, as far as we are concerned anyway, pretty similar to last year. Interestingly the UK average house price last month was £183,898 which is well below ours at £285.056. My advice to anyone that is off the property ladder at the present time is to get back on it as soon as possible because if we continue to sell as many, or more, properties than we list demand will far out weigh supply and could result in a property boom similar to what we experienced five years ago. In addition, this lack of stock will eventually fuel local house prices which could result in weaker affordability, as house prices continue to grow more quickly than earnings. Graham Wilson   Cowley Groves Half yearly Property Market Report 2007 27/06/2007 09:34:00 The second quarter of 2007 seems to be bringing about a change in the local property market as the stock shortages reported in our first quarter report have continued to worsen throughout the last three months with new listings a staggering 24% down when compared to the same period of 2006. Part of the reason for this could be down to our centenary TT festival in June as, due to the acute shortage of holiday accommodation, numerous vendors of empty properties had chosen to rent out their homes during this fortnight. This will hopefully result in properties that would have been listed in June being held back until July which should give an all needed boost to stock levels for the coming third quarter. Interestingly when comparing the available stock on our books today with June 2006 we find that we currently have 39% fewer properties available for sale. Negotiated sales on the other hand remained healthy during this period with 4% more sales negotiated in this quarter than the same period of 2006, which in itself was a good quarter. This was helped along by an excellent May with 7 properties alone negotiated at above £500,000 during this month. However, a lot of these negotiated sales will be from property stock listed in the first quarter of the year when property was more plentiful therefore this perhaps means that stock shortages this quarter could well have a negative knock on effect on sales during the rest of the year. The market needs just about the right amount of stock to meet demand otherwise shortages will inevitably result in increased competition amongst buyers and rapid price rises, similar to what we experienced four of five years ago. Yes we still have some properties on our books that have celebrated their marketing anniversary which although they may have missed the new listing boat, will eventually sell. New listings on the other hand are obviously paramount to a healthy marketplace. Obviously all we require is a couple of very healthy months for new listings and this may well balance the market once again by the end of the year but in the short term anyway we are experiencing quite significant stock shortages in certain price ranges. This has resulted in us having an abundance of buyers on our database that remain eager to purchase the right property that has been newly listed having exhausted the current stock . Consequently, if you are a vendor considering placing you home on the market there probably hasn’t been a better time to do so as these stock shortages should result in a quick sale at an excellent price. Just make sure you secure your next purchase and don’t, at the present time anyway, come off the property ladder for too long.   Cowley Groves First Quarter Report 2007 28/03/2007 10:54:00 As previously reported the market bounced back with a bang at the beginning of the year with January’s exchanged sales up a healthy 9% on January 2006. This in part would be down to the excellent number of sales negotiated during the latter part of last year. February also saw a substantial increase in negotiated sales with an 11% increase on the same period last year. March however was the quietest month of the first quarter in terms of office activity and viewings, with even some Saturday appointments throughout the month strangely patchy. It was with some surprise then when totalling up March’s negotiated sales that the month actually finished up pretty much on a par with March 2006. New listings for March followed a very similar pattern to the first two months of the quarter with all three months down slightly on the same quarter of 2006. This is resulting in stock shortages in certain price ranges which, if the trend continues, will inevitably fuel prices as at the moment demand is in many cases greater than supply. This is why quality homes in desirable areas can still achieve full price offers sometimes within a few days of marketing. A healthy market ideally will have just about the right amount of supply to meet demand. So it will be interesting to monitor stock levels and new listings over the next quarter as obviously, any serious stock shortages will result in increased competition among buyers and inevitable price rises. Interestingly during the first quarter of this year we have sold 8% more properties than we have listed which, when you take into account the inevitable properties that were withdrawn and not sold during this period, should give you some idea of the current stock situation. Whilst this is not an immediate problem and could quite easily right itself with a couple of good months for listings, if it did follow this pattern throughout the year we could find ourselves with 32% fewer properties to offer by December which would obviously affect the market. To sum up then another excellent first quarter and again slightly up in terms of negotiated sales on the same period of 2006. The quality of today’s viewer is excellent with many prospective purchasers in no chain circumstances, which due to the current stock situation, can lead to purchasers competing with each other on the same property. My advice to you as a purchaser is don’t lose your ideal home by negotiating heavily with the vendor as the right properties are, at the present time anyway, hard to find. On the other side of the fence if you are a potential vendor now is probably just about the ideal time to sell. Graham Wilson   Annual Property Market Report 2006 20/12/2006 12:08:00 Annual property Market Report 2006 As we all too rapidly approach yet another festive season, the local property market remains stable, healthy and, I am delighted to report, considerably up on 2005. The first quarter of the year brought a healthy 12% increase in negotiated sales with only March being unable to compete with 2005. A lot of high value enquiries and viewings took place during this period and the market between £350,000 and £500,000 was also buoyant for sales. The Spring months of the second quarter also saw brisk activity, pretty much across the price range and whilst May 2006 was a very similar month for sales to last year April and June were significantly up on 2005. In June our website broke the 18000 visitors a month barrier and also attracted a few investors tempted by some great value, purpose built apartments and 2 bedroom mews houses at between £155000 and £160000. July, August and September 2006, seemed to bring some of the high value viewers from the first quarter to the negotiation table. Consequently two great sales at above £1,500,000 were achieved in July alone distorting the average house price somewhat to over £300,000 compared to the more normal £230,000. Perhaps, due to these high value sales and abundance of sales achieved in August between £300,000 and £500,000, this period was the best quarter over the last 5 years. In terms of this quarter, October was a blistering month for negotiated sales and was not only the best month of 2006 but surprisingly there were considerably more sales negotiated in October 2006 than in any other month over the last three years. This was helped along by 2 sales at well in excess of £1,000,000. July was the next best month over this period but still 7% down on October. Consequently, October still made quite a difference to the final quarter of the year as, whilst November was similar in activity and sales to last year, December did seem to be a fair bit quieter than last year, which is maybe why I have the time to be a lot more verbal in this report than normal. The last quarter of this year has seen a significant lack of first time buyers. This may be because there is little agency stock around the government assistance threshold of £145,000 to tempt them and many may be buying privately or direct from developers. I will be monitoring the registry sales as always over the coming months to compare the number of sales recorded at this level to other years as the first time buyer is obviously crucial to a healthy market. Our apartment sales improved slightly for the last quarter of 2006 to 6.8% of all sales negotiated. Still, not a significant number, but an improvement nevertheless. This is the only section of the market that remains flooded with stock as more and more developers either convert town houses into apartments or construct more purpose built blocks. I can appreciate that land close to town is particularly hard to come by but any developer that was lucky enough to locate development land for new houses selling for between £250,000 and £400,000 would, in my opinion, be onto a winner as this and the top end of the market are perhaps the only stock shortages that we are currently experiencing. New listings in general for this period are pretty much on a par with last year in terms of the amount of property listed, therefore the extra activity experienced this year has depleted the current stock a little and we are now offering 9% fewer properties this year than last, which is good, as a healthy market is obviously all about demand and supply. If the economy is stable with minimum unemployment and reasonably low interest rates and you have just about the right amount of supply to meet the demand, the market should remain stable. Too much supply and not enough demand will inevitably lead to struggling sales and eventually price reductions as in today’s apartment market. At the other end of the scale too much demand and not enough supply will result in massive competition amongst buyers and unsustainable rises in property values similar to what we experienced five years ago when the market forged ahead and some homes were appreciating at up to 30% per year. This brought a flurry of investors to the marketplace, some of whom were buying numerous properties over the telephone and putting them straight back onto the rental market. The rise in interest rates in November will, in my opinion, have little effect on the stability of our market as, despite the recent increases, money remains cheap to borrow. The residential lettings market is equally as buoyant as residential sales, therefore in many cases it is cheaper to pay a mortgage to purchase than to pay a monthly rent. This in itself is tempting more purchasers into the market place, which is in turn fuelling the residential sales market. Prospective purchasers should also bear these rates in mind when negotiating to purchase their ideal home as paying an extra £5,000 for a property equates to about an extra £7.50 a week in terms of your typical 25 year term mortgage repayment. Hardly a deal breaker I am sure you will agree. Further afield the Nationwide Building Society, in a report on 16th November, predicted a rise in house prices between 5 and 6% in 2007 with prices this year up 8%. That was an upward revision of its forecast in August that they would rise 5% this year, which was itself an increase on the previous prediction of 0% to 3% annual growth. This new forecast is likely to delight many homeowners worried that with two interest rate rises since August and predictions of another coming early next year house price growth might come to a halt, but it will not be welcomed by prospective first time buyers already struggling to buy. Announcing record results for the six months to September 30th Nationwide outgoing Chief Executive Phillip Williamson said there is still a shortage of properties, and added “ we are still operating in a relatively low interest rate environment”. The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) reported a rise in average asking prices in October to £226,768 over September at £208,617. The Association also reported that the overall national picture for the property market in October showed a buoyant market place in advance of interest rate rises announced early this month. However, the national story is being lead by the ever strong Southeast, whilst other regions are reporting a slow down of activity. The vast regional differences in the UK mean that some areas of the country have housing markets that are beginning to falter. Significantly, October saw a return of the first time buyers, who increased their market share by the largest amount for over a year and a half. The number of house buyers and houses for sale on estate agents books were both proportionally up from figures reported by the NAEA in September, although people looking to buy, decreased from the same period last year. Actual house sales remained level from September but encouragingly increased from October 2005. First time buyers made a dramatic return to the housing market in October, increasing their market share to an encouraging 16.4% which is up from 11.1% in September. This is the highest percentage of first time buyers reported in the UK since April 2005 when first time buyers counted for a healthy 23.6% of the market. To sum up then, both locally and nationally, the property market seems to be settled into a buoyant yet sustainable pattern which, unless there is any significant changes in our economy, or property demand and supply, seems to be set for the foreseeable future. Graham Wilson Director Cowley Groves Holdings Ltd   Third Quarter Report 29/09/2006 09:16:00 Third Quarter Property Report 2006 I am delighted to report that despite the recent Bank of England interest rate rise, the third quarter of 2006 has been extremely busy, with both new listings and sales, resulting in a pleasing 31% increase in the value of negotiated sales when compared to the third quarter of 2005. Part of the reason for this increase being so high is undoubtedly the number of high value sales achieved in July and August with two sales achieved well in excess of £1.5 million in July alone making the average house price for this month in excess of £300,000 compared to £213,000 for the same period last year and consequently the best third quarter for the last five years. August, whilst not quite as good as July, had an abundance of sales achieved between £300,000 and £500,000 and in terms of unit numbers of sales was exactly twice as many as August 2005. September was the lowest of the three months for negotiated sales but still slightly up on September 2005. Our website cowleygroves.com confirms this extra activity and it continues to be by far the preferred option for prospective purchasers looking for a new home with around 70% of clients now arriving with details printed directly off our website as opposed to collected from our office. Every month the traffic, which is carefully monitored by us, increases and the website statistics for August alone were as follows: Number of visitors 19,200 (up 4.14%) Number of visits up 8.8% Number of details looked at for sale 77,158 (up 4%) Number of details looked at for rent 7,919 Number of details looked at for commercial 2,401 Number of details looked at for International Property 476 In terms of new listings for this period 2006 was almost identical to 2005 therefore the extra sales achieved above coupled with virtually the same amount of new listings will, if this trend continues, result in less choice which will inevitably fuel prices. When we compare the available stock on our books with the same period of 2005 we find that we are currently offering 14.8 % fewer properties than last year. The apartment market continues to struggle with far to many developments on the market, both purpose built and conversions and quite frankly very few apartment buyers. Consequently just 4% of our extremely healthy negotiated sales during this quarter were apartments. If there are any stock shortages on the market at the present time I would say they are between £300,000 and £500,000 and at the top end of the market well in excess of £1million. This is largely due to the recent sales achieved coupled with a shortage of new listings at this level and the recent local tax changes which has resulted in a lot more activity in this price range. Further afield the major national mortgage players such as the Halifax and the Nationwide are also reporting an upturn in the market of late with the Halifax quoting a blistering August for house price rises at 1% for the month taking there average house price to £179,043. The Nationwide also reported a sharp rise in house price growth during August. According to figures from the Bank of England the number of mortgages approved for house purchases in the three months to July is also up 24% on last year. The National Association of Estate Agents www.naea.co.uk report of 10th August was just as encouraging quoting continued strength and confidence in the market, detached house price increases due to demand outstripping supply and sales up a healthy 40% on July 2005. To sum up then, both the local and the National markets appear to be settled into a moderately increasing pattern and locally, as far as Cowley Groves is concerned anyway, this last quarter has been exceptional due to not only the extra activity at the higher end of the market but also a significant increase in the unit number of sales. Sure there are still properties on agents books that have gone stale and are reaching their marketing anniversary but these are getting fewer and are offset by numerous homes that achieve good prices within a few weeks of being on the market. As always competitive pricing and immaculate presentation even in a buyers market such as ours should achieve an early sale as, for the time being anyway, there are no shortage of cash buyers. Graham Wilson Cowley Groves & Co Ltd   Cowely Groves Half Yearly Property Report 2006 04/07/2006 10:44:00 Cowley Groves Half Yearly Property Report 2006 I read with interest in Isle of Man Examiner on the 27th June 2006 that according to treasury statistics sales on the Island are down by 10% during the first three months of the year. The figures also show that house sales have dropped consistently over a four year period. Obviously these are factual Government figures that reflect the market as a whole but it is interesting that when I analyse our sales between January and June over the last four years I find that our value of exchanged sales are actually 5.8% up on the next best year of this period, which was 2003. Interesting 2005 was the lowest year but still not significantly lower than the rest. In terms of unit numbers of exchanged sales over the same 4 year period the pattern is similar with very little difference between any year. 2003 saw the most property sold but again only 4% up on 2006. Our average house price for this period was £223,938, which was very similar to the treasury figure of £233,615. Our website confirms a similar picture with a staggering 18117 visitors during May alone which is our highest figure to date. These visitors also looked at 72446 properties during the month, which is also impressive, and our site now has 2889 registered users. You can join them at www.cowleygroves.com where you can input your search criteria and receive an automated email and text message as soon as a property meeting your requirements is listed. This analysis confirms that as far as Cowley Groves is concerned exchanged sales have not followed the same downward patterns that the treasury figures have. One reason for the difference between our figures and Treasury’s might be the reduction in developers direct sales. Don’t get me wrong the Island is still very much in the middle of a buyers market with an abundance of stock pretty much across the price range. Having said that, sales are healthy with the exception of apartments, which remain difficult to sell due to the enormous amount of stock available as due to the shortage of land more and more developers are choosing to build or convert apartment blocks as apposed to new semi or detached homes Demand for the high value properties remains healthy with only the shortage of choice preventing some sales. Traditional period town houses continue to sell well due to the abundance of space on offer for the price. The Douglas Squares are commanding premium prices for well presented examples with original features with many poorly converted apartment blocks in the Squares now being sold and converted back into one dwelling as in exceptional cases these homes can now achieve up to around £500,000 for really well presented examples. Some excellent value for money tempted a few investors to the market place during May with some modern 2 bedroom mews houses sold between £155,000 and £160,000. These homes historically achieve around £700.00 per month on the rental market for the investor or provide an excellent low maintenance first home for the first time buyer who is obviously crucial for a healthy market. New listings remain plentiful and for the first 6 months of the year pretty similar in numbers to last year. There are plenty of cash buyers out there and, as always, well presented reasonably priced homes should attract an early sale whilst poorly presented overpriced property will not attract viewers as todays buyer has plenty of choice. The key to an early sale is to tempt the cash buyer through your door with the correct marketing, details and price and to make sure he is impressed when he gets there. Further a field the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) latest report is encouraging indicating a steady housing market with sales up 15% and housing stock replenished. The NAEA also reports that the first time buyer share of the market was at its highest for 12 months, housing stock had a increased at a similar rate to buyers and the time taken to sell a residential property is down significantly on the same time last year. Further details are available on the Associations website www.naea.co.uk   Cowley Groves First Quarter Property Report 2006 24/03/2006 13:25:00 COWLEY GROVES FIRST QUARTER PROPERTY REPORT 2006 As we head towards the end of the first quarter of 2006, I am pleased to report that the market has definitely changed. Not only is the market up by a healthy 12% on the same period of 2005 for negotiated sales, but the extra activity and offers at the top end of the market has been astonishing during February and March. Part of the reason for this is undoubtedly the local tax changes that are due in April where income tax is to be capped at £100,000 and corporate tax will be at 0% for most businesses. If the enquiries received at the top end during March are anything to go by not only should this bring a healthy influx of new residents to our shores but, due to a shortage of stock at this level, these residents may well end up competing for the same property, which will obviously drive up prices. March in particular was an exceptional month for sales at this level with two properties negotiated at between £1,500,000 and £2,000,000 and one negotiated at well in excess of £,2000,000. My diary for Saturday 11th March made interesting reading as six out of eleven viewings on the day were on properties above £1,000,000 with one vendor having three viewings on his property on the same day with three different viewers. Quiet a change indeed as properties at this level are normally lucky to received three viewings in three months. Vendors contemplating selling at this level should consider placing their property on the market as soon as possible as this tax situation coupled with the historically buoyant spring and summer months should result in an early sale at an excellent price. The market between £150000 and £350000 also appears to be picking up nicely with far more viewers in a position to proceed with a purchase than in the last three months of 2005. However, the local apartment market is still fiercely contested with an abundance of re-sale properties, new purpose build apartment blocks as well as numerous recently converted units finished to a high standard. This extra stock seems to have cooled this section of the market somewhat and although apartments are still selling, supply, for the time being anyway, is greater than demand. Although new listings have been healthy they were slightly down on the same period last year. Having said that there is still an excellent choice of quality homes almost across the price range and, as always, well presented competitively priced homes will still attract early interest. Lower stock in-take over the year will undoubtedly result in higher prices. February also brought several sales on properties that have been on the market for 6 months or more, which I am hoping is yet another sign that the market is improving. Nationally the market seems to be following a similar rising pattern with the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) report of 21st March 2006 titled “Sales souring in run up to budget” stating that the number of sales agreed climbed rapidly in February as interest rates and employment levels remained stable and buyers confidence increased further. The association quoted a 30% increase in sales during February from 10 sales per agent to 13. The NAEA went onto say that with interest rates remaining stable some experts are now forecasting significant price rises for 2006 as consumers were clearly feeling optimistic about the market. Don’t get me wrong we remain in the middle of a buyers market locally with still considerably more sellers out there than buyers, but if the confidence in the local market keeps growing and we continue to list realistically priced well presented homes that continue to tempt purchasers to make the move the market could well take off again during the summer months…. Watch this space!!!! Graham Wilson Director Cowley Groves Holdings Ltd   Annual Report 2005 11/01/2006 12:18:00 Annual Report 2005 Well thankfully this year on a whole has finished up on 2004, which is an encouraging sign as 2004 was down on 2003 for negotiated sales. The first quarter of the year has been extremely buoyant in the local property market and this should be apparent to anyone driving round the Island as there are numerous sold boards with one road in upper Douglas displaying four within a couple of hundred yards. An extremely busy October was perhaps some of the reason for this with negotiated sales up a healthy 40% on October 2004. Indeed this October has been the best October for negotiated sales over the last 5 years, with only October 2003 being anywhere near comparable for sales. Some excellent high value sales were also negotiated during this period including a large detached home on the western outskirts of Douglas agreed at well in excess of £1.5 million, a large detached property in Lonan agreed at £900,000, a country house set in 15 acres in Baldwin sold for £725,000 and several other detached homes sold between £500,000 and £750,000. This high value activity has left a shortage of property at this level with some prospective purchasers unable to find what they are looking for from the Islands current stock and are therefore waiting for interesting new listings. Prospective sellers at this level should bear this in mind as, due to this shortage, new instructions could sell quickly and achieve great prices. November started briskly with more sales negotiated by the 15th of the month as the whole of November 2004. This can historically be a brisk couple of weeks as some would see this period as the last change to purchase and be in your new home in time for Christmas. December was pretty much on a par with last year with the latter half of the month being predictably quiet due to the festive season. Despite this healthy activity during the final quarter of the year existing vendors should be conscious of the fact that we are still very much in a buyers market so as always competitive pricing and immaculate presentation is the key to achieving that early sale. Having said that, this situation may well be changing slowly with new listings down about 20% on 2004 resulting in 12% fewer residential properties on our books at the end of 2005 than the same period of 2004. Supply is obviously still greater than demand but if this trend of more sales and fewer listings continues it will inevitably mean less choice which will eventually fuel the market and result in even higher property prices. The internet continues to be the preferred option for property details with over 70% of clients turning up to view properties with details printed of our website as opposed to collecting them from our office. You can still register free on our website www.cowleygroves.com and receive instant alerts by e-mail and text of any new listings in your criteria. Also if you intend to move locally don’t forget our Part Exchange Register, which is growing steadily with 3 part exchanges negotiated already. A selection of properties available for part exchange is available from our Douglas office. Some notable new listings for this last quarter were a substantial converted apartment block on Palace Road with superb views from £169,950, a penthouse apartment in Rochester Court at £595,000, a detached 5 bedroom home set in a acre in Baldrine offered at £595,000 and a detached country house set in 15 acres in Baldwin sold just three days after our valuation for well in excess of £700,000. Nationally in their October report the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) reported a revival in confidence of first time buyers, (obviously essential if the property market is to grow.) an increase for the third month running in negotiated sales with September being 18.2% up on the previous month, a fall in the housing stock with the number of homes available per agent falling nearly 20%, and the number of buyers on agents books up 2.5%. Encouraging signs indeed from the NAEA who sum up by saying the general feeling in the market place seems to be one of optimism among agents and consumers alike. To sum up then, as previously reported, 2004 was down on 2003. The first half of 2005 was up on the same period of 2004. But it was between May and December that 2005 really took off with only December being ever so slightly down on 2004 and whilst were obviously not talking about anything like the property boom we experienced in 2001 to 2003 it is still nice to see the market improve on the previous year. At least as far as 2005 is concerned anyway it is an increasing market with, if anything, too much for sale as opposed to not enough people to buy.   3rd Quarter Report 2005 26/09/2005 13:57:00 3rd Quarter Report 2005 In terms of telephone and office activity the third quarter of 2005 has been good. Sales are surprisingly healthy although listings are healthier therefore, during the last three months, stock has continued to increase further as we continue to take more properties onto our books than we are selling. This gives the impression that the market is slower than it actually is as with so many properties available inevitably there are some vendors in the market that cannot sell as purchasers seek out an abundance of well presented, realistically priced homes. In reality, most people will be surprised to hear that in terms of value of negotiated sales to date (January to September), we are actually up a healthy 15% on the same period of 2004. Yes, it’s a buyers market and yes there is an abundance of property but at least, as far as Cowley Groves is concerned anyway, buyers are spending 15% more money on property than last year. Numerous properties are still being reduced in price as quite simply the market will not stand overpriced property, therefore vendors have no option but to reduce their asking prices in order to achieve interest. High value homes are still receiving keen interest from numerous off-island purchasers and a healthy amount of sales in this catagory achieved over £800000 this year has obviously helped the market. This is one area of the market that does not have an abundance of stock, therefore making it a particularly good time to place your high value property on the market as numerous UK cash buyers have exhausted the current stock and are now purely only interested in new listings. The apartment market has cooled over the last few months, again almost certainly due to supply outstripping demand, consequently apartments accounted for only 21% of Residential Sales over the last nine months In terms of increases in property values it is very difficult to assess whether values are still going up slightly or remaining stagnant as inevitably in a buyers market there are always vendors prepared to sell for below market value to achieve an early sale and this tends to distort figures and make it difficult to get an accurate annual price increase. However, in my view, by the end of the year I would forecast property prices to be up around 5% on 2004. My advice to anyone about to put their property on the market would be to present it in tip top condition throughout, price it realistically from the outset, be prepared to negotiate with a purchaser who is ready to proceed as you will undoubtedly claw this reduction back on your next purchase and choose your agent carefully as gone are the days of selling property in a couple of hours to a cash buyer for full price. A property now needs full exposure, aggressive marketing, superior property details, full internet exposure, advertising exposure and careful negotiations if an early sale is to be achieved. All of which is obviously wasted if the initial asking price is too high or the property is not presented properly, as missing the first few weeks of marketing invariably results in missing an early sale. It is due to the above reasons that we have introduced our Part Exchange Register. In a market where there is such an abundance of properties and 75% of sellers who are also looking to buy again locally, part exchange is another viable marketing option for most vendors. Although currently in its early stages, our part exchange register will offer your property on the open market for part exchange, detailing both on the property details and on the internet what type of exchange you are interested in. Eventually we will also have a designated area on our website where you can browse all the properties on the register along with other vendors exchange requirements. Cowley Groves will then introduce both vendors to each others properties, negotiate a sale agreeable to both parties and see the transaction through to completion. The register is available to anyone listing their property with Cowley Groves and our normal agency fees will apply for both transactions. For further information call our Douglas office on 625888. Graham Wilson Cowley Groves & Co Ltd   Half Yearly Report June 2005 06/07/2005 15:52:00 Half Yearly Report June 2005 According to the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) the UK property market is getting back on track with the volume of sales returning to almost the same level as the same time last year, with an increase of almost two more properties sold per agent in May compared to the previous month. The NAEA also reports that although the level of residential property sales has improved, it is taking an average of 5 months to sell a property, which is an increase of 4.2 weeks on the same period last year. The association also reported an increase of 6.74 homes on the market per estate agent compared to last month which was double that of last year. The number of new applicant enquiries decreased by 29.1 in May compared to the previous year. With this increase in available properties and decrease in new applicant enquiries the NAEA is encouraging sellers to be realistic about pricing if they want to sell their property quickly. The NAEA sum up their report on an encouraging note as sales of residential property has risen and returned to a similar level as the same time last year. This is a very positive sign for the housing market on the whole. People are usually more cautious when there is a General Election, however, this does not seem to have been the case. It is a good sign that confidence in the housing market is growing. As far as the local property market is concerned, the first half of the year so far has been exceptionally busy in residential sales, with the market continuing to rise steadily over the same period of 2004. Negotiated sales for the first quarter of 2005 were, as previously reported, up a healthy 35% on the first three months of 2004, helped along by some excellent high value sales in March, including a large country home in Port Soderick, sold for 2.25 million and a recently constructed, executive, detached house in Douglas, sold for £715000. I am pleased to report that this upward trend has continued during the second quarter of this year and negotiated sales have increased a further 16% during this period with only April being lower than 2004 for both negotiated sales and unit numbers. May was by far the best month over the last six and even beat last March, which was also an excellent month for negotiated sales. Having said that, the market is appearing to be slower and less buoyant than it actually is, due to the enormous amount of stock available across the whole price spectrum. New listings are plentiful Island wide and we continue to list more homes monthly than we sell, so the amount of available stock is increasing, giving today’s buyer even more choice. This is why we have the unusual situation of more sales negotiated than last year, yet numerous vendors still unable to sell and more cash buyers looking for (and finding) bargains. Price reductions have never been more dominant as today’s sellers still seem to be pitching their initial asking prices higher than the market will stand. This invariably results in the property eventually being reduced to the level it should have been in the first place. Vendors should take their agents advice and other comparable sales in the area when deciding on the asking price, as the first eight weeks of marketing are paramount and should not be missed due to an unrealistic asking price. In short, if new sellers entering the market realistically price their properties, they should find buyers. Indeed, many sellers are potential buyers themselves, but at the moment there are large numbers of them who can’t sell. Not enough are willing to break this stalemate by dropping their prices at the outset. Consequently, their properties go stale, and a later reduction has far less influence as the initial market impact is lost. Although sales are, (as far as Cowley Groves are concerned anyway) up on 2004, the market has, at present, more vendors than purchasers so properties are taking considerably longer to sell than last year. This will result in increased competition amongst those who are really committed to selling. In the absence of price falls across the market, the other way to improve affordability in a buyers market is to find the bargains. Sensible deals done at the upper end of the market will provide opportunities for the benefits of realistic pricing to be passed all the way down the chain to the first time buyers. In terms of property value increases, property remains an excellent longer term investment with sales healthy and prices continuing to rise (albeit by a much lower percentage than the last few years) and a few investors are still investing their capital in property as a long term investment, with many treating their additional property as their pension fund. With no imminent fall forecast in either house prices or interest rates, first time buyer affordability may need to be assisted by parental help, shared ownership initiatives, by mortgage lenders or subsidised mortgage schemes by Government. First time buyers are key to the long-term health of the property market and an increasing amount of unsold property on the market should eventually provide opportunities for first time buyers to get on the bottom rung of the property ladder. The outlook then should be good as local sellers are not forced to sell at below market prices due to unemployment or rocketing mortgage repayment increases, driven by interest rates, so a crash in price is highly unlikely. The key to moving on is obviously selling and the key to selling is undoubtably price, presentation and negotiation. After all, if you are moving in the same local market, any deal you have to negotiate on your own home should be offset by some similar negotiation on your purchase. Graham Wilson Cowley Groves & Co Ltd.   Market Comment First Quarter 2005 06/04/2005 14:08:00 Market Comment First Quarter 2005 Whilst the market is obviously not quite as stable and buoyant at present than in previous years, it is by no means quiet, with an abundance of clients continuing to take advantage of the low interest rates and move on. In these more uncertain times it is obviously more important to monitor the market more closely, more often, to ascertain how we compare to previous years with regard to negotiated sales and new listings in particular. Interestingly when we compare the first quarter of 2005, to the same period last year we find a distinct increase in negotiated sales. January was the only month in this year's first quarter that was down (about 14%) on 2004. This was largely due to quieter than normal first half of the month. February and March have continued along the same busy route as the second half of January. Valuations and new listings although plentiful were down 11% on 2004. Negotiated sales were actually up a healthy 35% on the same period of 2004, an encouraging sign as we head into the all important spring months. These figures were helped along by some excellent high value sales in March, including a large detached country residence on the South side of town, sold in excess of £2 million pounds. Some notable new listings for this period where a Superb 5 bedroomed detached house in Turnbury Avenue, Onchan offered at a very competitive £399,000, an excellent executive detached house in Summerhill Mansions at £725,000 and a superior converted apartment block in Selborne Road with prices starting at £124,500. Full details of which are available at our Douglas Office or on our website www.cowleygroves.com We will obviously continue to analyse the market monthly in the hope that this upward trend continues and the market continues to improve during the second quarter of 2005, but if the first three months are anything to go by, we could well be heading for another very heathy year indeed.   Annual Report 2004 04/01/2005 15:30:00 COWLEY GROVES ANNUAL PROPERTY MARKET REPORT 2004 There is no question that the local and indeed national property market has changed somewhat this year. Looking through our property report archives makes interesting reading as last years annual report states that the property shortage on the island was coming to an end and the market, although every bit as good as 2002, had a slightly more relaxed feel to it due to the extra choice. Consequently, we were still experiencing some substantial increases in property prices back then, with some homes up 17% annually with an average increase at around 9% quoted. We also predicted last year that prices would continue to rise over the following twelve months but more slowly, at around 5-7%. Today this increase is closer to the lower figure as the market has contracted slightly more than expected. Having said that todays market is different, and down on last year, does not mean that we are not busy as ‘phones continue to ring constantly, valuations and viewings can be booked up nearly a week in advance and Internet traffic has increased considerably. Yes, it is now a buyers market, but it is still a market with an abundance of vendors showing confidence and moving on, subject of course to securing that all important sale on their own home. Interesting also is that at time of writing the number of cash buyers has increased dramatically on previous months. Because the listings are up on last year and sales down, stock has increased by about 30%. This has resulted in homes taking longer to sell as buyers obviously have more choice, but I stress, taking longer as opposed to not selling at all, as a well presented, competitively priced home should still attract an early buyer. Although negotiated sales are down considerably on last year, the outlook, in my opinion, remains good. The three key factors that determine the property market more than any other are; supply and demand, interest rates and employment. Property is no longer in short supply, therefore todays buyer has choice, the experts are predicting that interest rates have now peaked with some forecasting rates as low as 4% in 2 years and our unemployment remains very low as just 423 residents were registered unemployed in October which equates to just 1.1% of the economically active population. Add to this the fact that there appears to have been a significant increase in new residents over the latter half of the year and you can see why I remain optimistic for the following couple of years and, for all of the above reasons, a market crash is highly unlikely. Sure, we are unlikely to experience the exceptional growth that has astonished us all over the last five years, as this was fuelled by very limited stock, demand massively outstripping supply and our own economy growing by 13% annually. The market, in my opinion, is more likely to settle into a buoyant but more realistic, normal pattern, with steady as opposed to unsustainable growth. A couple of new listings during November worth noting were a detached, four bedroom farmhouse, set in an idyllic five acres in Baldwin, priced at £775000 and unusually, a two bedroom re-sale apartment in Costa del Sol situated just fifteen minutes from Marbella, priced at £235000. Full details of both properties are available from our Douglas office, or our website, cowleygroves.com. Graham Wilson Director Cowley Groves & Co Ltd   Third Quarter Property Report 2004 28/09/2004 11:47:00 THIRD QUARTER PROPERTY REPORT 2004 The third quarter of the year has continued down virtually the same busy road as the first two. Sure the market is different than last year in as much as it is now a buyers market with an abundance of property available pretty much throughout the price range, but the enquiries, valuations, listings and viewings keep rolling in. Whilst sales for the first six months of the year were more or less on a par with 2003, the summer months saw fewer purchasers and, therefore a drop in sales for this period when compared to last year. Having said that, activity for the latter part of September has been fierce indicating that sales could well exceed last year for the all important run up to Christmas. New listings from vendors wishing to upgrade continue to rise with around 30% more property available this year which tells us that even more vendors are confident enough in the market to place their homes on sale and move on, subject to securing a prospective purchaser for their own property. Whilst this extra stock has not resulted in contracting values, it has meant that many vendors are reducing their asking price in order to achieve an early sale. These price reductions can give the wrong impression of a falling market although most of these properties will more than likely have been priced too high initially and will have missed securing a sale in the most important first six to eight weeks of marketing. A healthy market still exists for well presented, reasonably priced homes in almost all locations. Whereas poorly presented, overpriced homes are unlikely to attract much interest due to the abundance of choice. Genuine sellers intending to upgrade and purchase again in the same market should be prepared to be flexible with their price to cash buyers (no chain) as it is likely that a similar or better deal can be negotiated on their next purchase. In spite of the extra stock available, the first time buyer will still struggle to purchase a suitable home up to £150000, as this area of the market is still without much choice. Although the Government Assistance Scheme is working well with many first time buyers already housed, there are still around 1100 buyers on the list. However, with several large, new, first time buyer developments on the cards and an increase in the maximum purchase price from £90000 to £145000 for open market properties and from £130000 to £145000 for Government approved properties there is light at the end of the tunnel for patient buyers. To sum up then, 2004 so far has been a busy year and although sales are down on 2003, general activity is almost certainly up. Interest rates have risen but money remains cheap to borrow and existing vendors have accumulated substantial equity in their homes due to the rising market. Equity which many are happy to release and put towards upgrading their home particularly as there is now the benefit of choice. Property values continue to rise albeit at a lower rate than the last few years and mortgage lenders are still offering affordable, long term fixed rates. It will be interesting to see how the last quarter pans out as this is historically a busy time as vendors try to purchase in time for a completion before Christmas. Watch this space! Graham Wilson Cowley Groves   Half Yearly Report 22/06/2004 09:11:00 Cowley Groves Half Yearly Report 2004 I can honestly say that in terms of general activity, enquiries and appointments for the first half of this year, 2004 has been busier than 2003. With the exception of perhaps the first time buyer, today’s purchaser will find plenty of properties to choose from, almost across the price range. As we can all see from the abundance of for sale boards, the acute stock shortages that we experienced during 2003 have gone. This extra choice has resulted in keen sellers having to price their properties realistically to achieve an early sale, as over-priced and particularly poorly presented homes will simply not sell in what, over the last few months, has become a buyers market. Unit numbers of new listings were up nearly 10% on the first half of last year, yet negotiated sales were down around 11%, thus further adding to an already healthy register of properties currently offered for sale. The Value of the sales negotiated for the first six months of the year have surprisingly followed an almost identical pattern to 2003 which can be seen clearly by the charts Although interest rates have risen again this month, and will probably rise again, money still remains cheap to borrow at a 4.5% base rate. Add to that the fact that those of us lucky enough to already be on the property ladder have accumulated huge equity in our own homes over the past few years. With this in mind, it is not difficult to see why so many people consider this to be a great time to release this equity, improve their standard of living, and move on. There are still a few investors confident enough to put their money into property, although nowhere near as many as last year. Today’s investor sees his purchase as a more long-term investment, and some are even treating it as their pension for retirement. A few short-term investors that invested two or three years ago are deciding to cash in and sell, having enjoyed an excellent income from the buoyant rental market, and excellent capital appreciation. Nationally, the market is also expected to be stable during the second half of the year, with the National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) quoting that no market crash is predicted because of the sustained low interest rates (a 6% mortgage is still very low by historical standards), and continued strong growth in earnings and employment. Due to the stronger than expected start to the year, the Nationwide has also revised its forecast for house price growth from 9% to 15%. The Nationwide also believe that the latter half of 2004 is likely to see slower growth in prices, although they believe a slump is unlikely. The price of the average house rose again nationally, to £142 584, still somewhat lower than ours, which currently stands at just over £200 000 for the first half of the year. To sum up then, the market remains healthy, although down on 2003. Buyers are still there, enjoying the fact that the market now has enough stock to give them choice and in turn more time to make that choice. Sellers of realistically priced and well-presented homes are still achieving early sales, which in turn releases them into a market with an abundance of choice. Property values continue to rise, and whilst we probably won’t see anything like the rises of the last few years, if the second half of the year continues along similar lines to the first, we should still be in line for reasonable single-digit rises by the end of 2004. Graham Wilson Director Cowley Groves   COWLEY GROVES FIRST QUARTER REPORT 2004 30/03/2004 12:50:00 If there is any lack of general activity in our local property market it was certainly not apparent during the first quarter of 2004. January bounced back briskly after the Christmas period with an abundance of appointments made during the first two weeks of the year. New instructions continued to soar during the first quarter and finished up 15% on last year, thus alleviating any stock shortages except perhaps in the first time buyer bracket up to £130000. When we compare the stock situation to the same period last year we find ourselves offering 30% more property for sale in March 2004 than in March 2003. Sales slowed slightly during the first quarter of 2004 with only January being 3% up on last year. February and March 2004 were down on 2003, not significantly, but down nevertheless. That said, activity during this period was up (ie enquiries, viewings, valuations and listings). The market was considerably busier in the first quarter of 2004 than the first quarter of 2003 so this should result in a healthy second quarter for sales. The average house price for negotiated sales for this period has fluctuated a little between the highest, January at £289975 and the lowest, March at £219324. Values are still on the up with an 8.6% average increase in property value over the same period of 2003. Economic conditions look unlikely to produce any significant slowdown therefore I feel this upward trend will continue until at least the end of 2004. Nationally the market also remains stable with the Nationwide reporting a 3.1% increase in the average property price during February (the strongest monthly increase since April 2002), which took the annual house price inflation up to 17.1% and the price of a typical property up to £138730, a rise of over £20000 over the last twelve months. The National Association of Estate Agents (NAEA) is equally as optimistic reporting that the number of buyers on Estate Agents books was up 27% on 2003 to its highest level for six months. Sales agreed, viewings and new instructions all increased for the first time since August, indicating that the new year has re-instated homebuyers confidence in the market. The NAEA also believe that house prices have risen 8.4% over the last twelve months. To sum up then, another healthy first quarter locally, with massive activity, healthy sales and an excellent choice of property available almost throughout the price range. Values are still rising, money is still cheap to borrow and property remains a sound investment. It should be remembered that even after Februarys rise, rates are still at a forty year low and initial mortgage payments for a typical mortgage will only have risen to around 29% of take home pay. Vendors looking to achieve an early sale should take their agents advice regarding value from the outset as overpriced homes will miss out on the first 4-6 weeks of realistic marketing, which is generally when a property receives the most interest. The presentation of homes offered for sale is also an important factor as there is no doubt that today’s purchasers have more choice and therefore their expectations are higher. There is always a market for well presented, realistically priced property and due to the fact the panic buying has all but gone, the purchaser has more time to find it.   Cowley Groves Annual Property Report 2003 09/01/2004 16:22:00 COWLEY GROVES ANNUAL PROPERTY REPORT 2003 As we rapidly approach the end of another busy year in the residential property market we again make some comparisons with last year to ascertain how the market has changed, if at all, over the last twelve months. The one thing that is apparent is, that, despite rumours to the contrary, the market remains buoyant with plenty of buyers still confident enough in the market to utilise the immense property equity that the last five year boom has earned them and increase their mortgage enough to give them a substantial property upgrade for their family. The main reason that the market appears to be slightly more relaxed is simply down to a significant increase in stock levels over the last five or six months, giving prospective purchasers more choice and therefore more time to look around. When we do a unit number count on residential properties throughout the Island we find that Cowley Groves are offering nearly 12% more properties for sale than in December 2002. Property prices continued to rise throughout this year, not as much as last year, but with some extreme rises of 17% and an overall average rise of around 9%, still a healthy increase and still healthy enough to tempt investors to take their monies off deposit at around 3.5% and invest in the local property market. This 9% increase is in line with our previous forecast at the start of the year and when we compare these increases with last year we find the percentages are 20% and 14% respectively. Some properties that did not sell during the year were the subject of a price reduction although I feel that this is due more to the fact that some vendors are unrealistic with their asking prices rather than contracting property prices. It is clear that property prices are not rising as much as last year but at least they are still rising and not falling. There remains very little for sale up to £120000 and first time buyers continue to struggle to get that first step on the property ladder. Sales in this price range during 2003 accounted for just 5.7% of the total sales for the year compared to 13% last year. At the present time this figure will usually buy you a small apartment as opposed to a small house, which would be the next step of the ladder at around £150000. At the other end of the scale we find that 9.89% of all residential sales negotiated throughout 2003 were above £350000. This should increase next year as more people trade even further upwards. I also believe that we will see an increase in enquiries at the very top of the market from buyers arriving from UK having sold their businesses. The average house price for negotiated sales has risen once again to £211265, which is a rise of about 8% on last year and , looking at the graph, this shows a high but steady rise since 1997 when it was just £87500. Looking forward to next year I anticipate a single digit increase in property prices in the order of 5% to 7%, slightly down on this year but nevertheless significant. The Internet is rapidly becoming the first port of call for homebuyers with more and more clients every week turning up to viewings with details printed off our site as opposed to collected from our office. Prospective purchasers should note that free registration online will provide them with instant notification of new listings matching their criteria. Our vendors on the other hand will automatically have their homes instantly cross-referenced and e-mailed to every client who logs on to our site looking for their type of property. We are also able to inform vendors of exactly how many hits their property has received along with how many clients have received it via e-mail and postal mail. Also, look out for our International property section on our website which is now available with Spain as our first country and many more to follow. Graham Wilson Director Cowley Groves Holdings Ltd   Commercial Report 2003 08/01/2004 11:36:00 Commercial Annual Report 2003 Cowley Groves commercial department continues to widen its reach, providing an increasingly broad range of professional services. Its client base is diverse, ranging from the sole trader to the large-scale investor – a key factor, says Graham Wilson, in the departments success. Our diversity of reach continues. Over the past year we’ve acted in the acquisition of International House on Victoria Road - £1.75m office investment – provided insurance valuations and land valuation services to government department – for the former Royal Skandia building in Finch Road, Douglas, and have also been instrumental in a wide range of smaller office suite lettings, a number of which have been for some of the Island’s leading IFA firms. In addition we acted in the sale – for in excess of £800,000 – of a block of 20 apartments to a London-based property investment company, while other residential investment block sales have achieved between 94 to 96 per cent of their asking prices. Other highlights include acting for Ramsey Town Commissioners in the sale by formal tender of the town’s former Isle of Man Bank building, and selling a freehold office with vacant possession in Onchan for just under the asking price. And I’m please to report that we have rarely had to re-negotiate rents to any great extent as our initial valuations have proved to be, in the main, accurate at the outset. The commercial office letting market has slowed down somewhat over the past year, and we’ve witnessed a heightened sense of caution. That said, there are still some attractive opportunities for those seeking new office space with a number of letting incentives now being offered in a market where the potential exists to dictate quite favourable rental terms. There continues to be steady demand for freehold and leasehold industrial / warehouse space. In the main clients would prefer to buy, but scarce supply means many have to opt for leasing premises. Such is the demand that one memorable day we valued a unit – a 3000 square feet warehouse on the Snugborough Industrial Estate – at 9am and an hour and a half later, having contacted a client whom we knew would be interested, a sale was agreed for the full asking price. To add to the department’s diversity we’re developing the management side of our operation, setting up specialist in-house systems to deliver a quality service. The year was not without its challenges but March and April 2003 saw record sales for this department – over £2 million – and while summer activity was more modest, having launched some special offices for our services the number of valuation requests increased significantly. For the future, should interest rates rise only marginally, I foresee little change in the commercial market. Should however there be a marked rise in rates, then its likely caution will be even more widespread. Recent tax incentives by the Isle of Man Government have prompted an increased level of inquires but it’s early days yet to see whether these measures will urge UK and international companies to consider relocating to the island. I would stress that the commercial market is markedly different from the residential market, and that the two cannot be linked as far as price patterns are concerned, although capital values of commercial property do rise when rents are reviewed. And to clients seeking to dispose of commercial property, I would urge them to consider diversifying the agents they instruct, given the prevailing quieter market conditions, in order to maximise their opportunity of securing a sale. But whatever the future market conditions, ‘Cowley Groves’ commercial department remains committed to fostering close working relationships with clients and delivering the best possible professional service.